Ideas

The extraordinary iron ore price action we have continued to see through the June quarter has prompted us to further refine our financial performance forecasts for FMG as we head towards the end of FY21. Marking-to-market the iron ore price for the June 2021 quarter to date shows the average price now sits at ~US$184/dmt.

We upgraded our forecasts for Eagers following the Q1 trading update in mid April but have further reviewed our forecasts following an investor presentation released to the ASX in late April and another strong month for new vehicle sales in April which was released in early May.

A2M provided updated FY21e earnings guidance, which projected a slower recovery in 4Q21e than expected and the potential for this to drag into 1Q22e. In light of this we softened the trajectory of the rebound in A2M volumes impacting our SM1 assumptions.

After a year of unprecedented challenges from the coronavirus (COVID-19) spread around the world and large swings in investor sentiment globally, the March 2021 quarter was noteworthy for renewed hope and optimism as the global COVID-19 case rate decreased and viable COVID vaccines began to be rolled out worldwide with bio-medical companies scaling-up production to meet demand.