What's in store for Markets in 2019? Key themes to watch

Markets could see elevated volatility in 2019 as the lag effects of the trade war and massive tax cuts that have widened the budget deficit, resulting in a jump in Treasury yields, hit home. And, the deceleration in the growth of corporate profits could make it a challenging year for equities and test the pace of Fed rate hikes.

• Will lag effects of interest rate hikes, trade war with China show up in 2019?
• Oil market overwhelmed by rising supply; U.S. shale producers keep pumping
• Could equities volatility escalate in 2019 as bond yields rise amid growing budget deficit?
• FX markets could be driven by country-specific issues from UK to Brazil to China

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US Election Risk?

Hedge market-moving impacts with equity options

The November 6 U.S. Midterm elections are fast approaching, and the uncertainty of new policies or a divided congress can impact volatility and stock prices.

In the November 2016 U.S. election, equity index options volume rapidly rose overnight, with 655K E-mini S&P 500 options traded before the U.S. market opened the next day. Similarly, 475K+ contracts were traded overnight around the Brexit vote in June 2016.

Take advantage of the around-the-clock liquidity of our futures and options products to help you stay ahead of this election.

• Use Monday and Wednesday options: E-mini and standard S&P 500 options expiring on November 5 (E1AX8 and S1AX8) and November 7 (E1CX8 and S1CX8).
• Use S&P Select Sector futures, across 11 sectors, to further express your view and complement your trading strategy.

ASX Equity Derivatives Monthly - September 2018

Strong SPI volumes led equity derivative markets in September increasing by 15% compared with last year.

We had a record day with 666,674 SPI contracts traded on Tuesday the 18th thanks to large roll activity.

Single stock and Index option volumes were subdued compared with last year, however further trades in ASX Equity FlexClear and improved weekly option volumes provided some positive notes.

In general market news, VIX looked to be on the rise early in the month thanks to weaker equity markets but as market conditions improved VIX retreated back to its recent levels and finished the month a touch over 10.5.

The resource sector was the ASX 200 standout performer in September, helped by the strength in iron ore and oil prices. All other sector/market themes eased back, with financials again suffering a notable loss.

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CME Group: Market Movers - Looking ahead to the October Crop Report

Industry experts Dave Hightower, Founding Principal of The Hightower Report, and Dan Basse, President of AgResource Company, preview the October Crop report and discuss why this report will be more focused on supply vs. demand.

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ASX Grains Focus

In the September 2018 ASX Grains Focus monthly report:

• Total traded volume of 10,381 lots across EA Wheat contracts, approaching 10,611 lot monthly record set in December 2016
• Prices continue to trend higher with high of $450 in the Jan'19 EA Wheat contract
• Record dry conditions persist in much of NSW

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CME Group: Market Movers - Looking ahead to the September Crop Report

Industry experts Dave Hightower, Founding Principal of The Hightower Report, and Dan Basse, President of AgResource Company, preview the September 12 USDA report discussing corn and soybean yields in advance of its publication.

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ASX Grains Focus

In the August 2018 ASX Grains Focus monthly report:

• Record trading volume for the Calendar Yr with 9,750 lots
• High price of $410 in Eastern Australian Wheat

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ASX Grains Focus

In the July 2018 ASX Grains Focus monthly report:

• Record dry conditions persist across East Coast cropping regions
• ASX Grain futures flat price and basis trade at contract highs
• Increasing activity in ASX red crop wheat futures

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CME Products: Top 20 Futures for July 2018 8am-8pm (AEST)

CME Group: Trade war implications for the economy and markets

Fallout from the escalating Sino-U.S. trade war is rippling through financial and commodity markets and if prolonged could impede growth in both nations.

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Equity Derivatives Monthly - July 2018

2017/18 Financial Year in Review

It was the year of the index for equity derivatives. Index futures volumes up 13% and index options volumes up 20% compared with FY 16/17. Average daily volume for the year was 55,000 (index futures) and 50,000 (index options) equating to $8.5 and $3.1 billion notional value traded per day.

Interestingly non-roll months drove the increased futures turnover up 20% for the year thanks to increased volatility in February and April. Whilst index option weekly expiries continue to grow now accounting for 1 in every 5 trades in index options.

June Statistics

June 2018 saw the Australian market close at its highest level in 10 years (6194) up 3.4% for the month. The ASX200 outperformed global markets due to strength in the resource and energy sectors and a turnaround in the performance of the banks after pressure on prices related to the Royal Commission.

World market growth was characterised by continued strength in developed markets; particularly in the US, after a strong US reporting season. Europe was soft while Asia (excluding Japan) and emerging markets (EM) were off by 2-3%.

Record volumes in SPI futures with just under 2 million contracts trading up 8% vs 2017. VIX is slightly up from last month currently at 13.5 and hovering between 12.5 and 13.5 for the month.

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CME Group: Looking ahead to the July Crop Report

Is the USDA forecasting politics instead of pure model/survey for their July WASDE report? Industry exports Dave Hightower, Founding Principal of the Hightower Report, and Dan Basse, President of AgResource Company discuss this and more.

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ASX Grain Focus

In the July 2018 ASX Grains Focus monthly report:

• Australian wheat basis firm with patchy rain across East Coast
• BOM's El Nino watch upgraded from "Inactive" to "Watch"
• ABARES decrease Australian wheat production estimate

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CME Group: Factors likely to shape Fed's interest rate path in H2 2018

Video highlights:

• Fed could hike rates at least once in H2 2018 as core inflation edges up
• A second rate increase in H2 is possible but dependent on inflation data
• Fed aiming for 'rate neutrality', when Fed funds rate equals core inflation
• 10-year Treasury Note at 3% could be a floor, not ceiling, if inflation strengthens

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CME Group: OPEC Watch Tool

Stay up to date with the latest probabilities of the OPEC meeting expected outcomes with the CME OPEC Watch Tool.

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Australian Grains Market

In the March 2018 ASX Grains Focus report:

• ASX March 2018 Eastern Australia Wheat delivered at Melbourne and Geelong port zones.
• Australian wheat basis Chicago futures firms with dryer domestic outlook.
• ABARES forecasts Australian wheat production returning back to average levels.

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