The majority of the banks had a good reporting season in the period ended 31 December 2019. However, all this is now history and what lies ahead in the next 12-24 months will be of more concern as there appears to be no escaping COVID-19 for now.
Following the RBA’s decision to lower the cash rate by 25bp to 0.50%, we have decided to rebase sector earnings expectations. This is in anticipation of slowing home and business lending growth and another 25bp rate cut linked to COVID-19.
Our 2020 top three picks, MQG, SUN and IAG, possess strong risk management capabilities and defensive qualities including healthy balance sheets and surplus capital that could be returned to shareholders.